Will the heating oil close price be above 4.199 USD/Gal on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Prediction markets currently give a 18% probability that Will the heating oil close price be above 4.199 USD/Gal on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 18¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme distress signals with zero 24-hour volume, a massive 29¢ spread, and an implausible 100,000% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting severe illiquidity and potentially stale pricing.
Analysis
This market shows extreme distress signals with zero 24-hour volume, a massive 29¢ spread, and an implausible 100,000% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting severe illiquidity and potentially stale pricing. The price has collapsed 90% over seven days (from 18¢ to 2¢), indicating either a sharp shift in market conviction or a liquidity crisis rather than fundamental repricing. With only $838 open interest and 11 days to expiry, this appears to be a dead market where the 2¢ price may not reflect true probability—the cliff risk index of 32 and neutral regime suggest binary tail risk rather than a reliable prediction.
Resolution rules
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for heating oil on April 30, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is || Above/Below/Between/At least|| 4.199 USD/Gal, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXHOILMON-26APR3017-T4.199 yes 100