Will the heating oil close price be above 4.399 USD/Gal on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will the heating oil close price be above 4.399 USD/Gal on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 10¢ Yes price implying only 10% probability despite an astronomical 85,544% annualized yield, suggesting the contract is severely undervalued relative to heating oil's current volatility (3,022% realized).
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 10¢ Yes price implying only 10% probability despite an astronomical 85,544% annualized yield, suggesting the contract is severely undervalued relative to heating oil's current volatility (3,022% realized). The sharp price collapse from 8¢ to 3¢ over seven days combined with zero 24-hour volume and minimal $929 open interest indicates illiquidity and potential abandonment, raising questions about whether this reflects genuine market consensus or simply a dead market with stale pricing. With 14 days to expiry and a wide 7¢ spread, this appears to be a speculative mispricing opportunity, though the high cliff risk index (32) and neutral regime suggest significant execution risk if attempting to arbitrage the disconnect.
Resolution rules
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for heating oil on April 30, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is || Above/Below/Between/At least|| 4.399 USD/Gal, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXHOILMON-26APR3017-T4.399 yes 100