Will the heating oil close price be above 4.449 USD/Gal on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will the heating oil close price be above 4.449 USD/Gal on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity and pricing distortion, with zero 24-hour volume despite $1,929.59 open interest, suggesting positions are stale or trapped.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity and pricing distortion, with zero 24-hour volume despite $1,929.59 open interest, suggesting positions are stale or trapped. The "Yes" contract's implied yield of 35,150% is nonsensical given the 14-day timeframe and reflects the 10¢ price being artificially depressed relative to the ~36% probability needed to justify such yields. The realized volatility of 19,891% and cliff risk index of 13 indicate this market has experienced severe price dislocations, likely from thin order books and infrequent trading—the recent 7-day move from 3¢ to 7¢ suggests recent price discovery, but the current 10¢ bid may not reflect true market consensus on whether heating oil closes above $4.449/gallon.
Resolution rules
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for heating oil on April 30, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is || Above/Below/Between/At least|| 4.449 USD/Gal, then the market resolves to Yes.
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXHOILMON-26APR3017-T4.449 yes 100