Will the heating oil close price be above 2.999 USD/Gal on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Prediction markets currently give a 95% probability that Will the heating oil close price be above 2.999 USD/Gal on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 95¢ on Kalshi, closing April 24, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 38¢ spread, suggesting the 0¢ price may not reflect true market sentiment but rather a stale quote.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 38¢ spread, suggesting the 0¢ price may not reflect true market sentiment but rather a stale quote. The astronomical implied yields (10,633% on the No side) are artifacts of the near-zero price and should be disregarded given the lack of trading activity. With only 5 days to expiration and heating oil's realized volatility at 1,169%, this market is too thin to trade meaningfully, and the recent 93¢-to-61¢ price decline likely reflects minimal order flow rather than fundamental conviction about heating oil pricing.
Resolution rules
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for heating oil on April 24, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is above 2.999 USD/Gal, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXHOILW-26APR2417-T2.999 yes 100