Will the heating oil close price be above 3.199 USD/Gal on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Prediction markets currently give a 93% probability that Will the heating oil close price be above 3.199 USD/Gal on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 93¢ on Kalshi, closing April 24, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $3 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 82¢ price potentially unreliable despite the sharp 12-cent rally over seven days.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $3 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 82¢ price potentially unreliable despite the sharp 12-cent rally over seven days. The astronomical 31,582% risk-adjusted implied yield on the "No" side signals severe mispricing—such yields are only rational if traders expect near-certain resolution, yet heating oil at $3.199/gal represents only a modest premium to recent levels. With just 5 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 5, this micro-market appears abandoned by serious traders, leaving the price vulnerable to manipulation or distortion from minimal order flow.
Resolution rules
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for heating oil on April 24, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is above 3.199 USD/Gal, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXHOILW-26APR2417-T3.199 yes 100