Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before January 1, 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 90% probability that Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above.... This contract trades at 90¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market is pricing in an 83% probability that Strait of Hormuz transit calls will exceed 60 on a 7-day moving average before year-end 2026, but the extreme 641% implied yield on the No side signals severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns—the $54.5K open interest and $746 daily volume are notably thin for a binary with 260 days to expiry.
Analysis
The market is pricing in an 83% probability that Strait of Hormuz transit calls will exceed 60 on a 7-day moving average before year-end 2026, but the extreme 641% implied yield on the No side signals severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns—the $54.5K open interest and $746 daily volume are notably thin for a binary with 260 days to expiry. The 99% realized volatility and 1.74 vol ratio suggest this contract has experienced wild swings despite the stable 82¢ price over the past week, indicating either data surprises or low-liquidity price shocks rather than fundamental repricing.
Resolution rules
If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Edges (3)
Trade
sf trade KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101 yes 100