Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 94% probability that Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above.... This contract trades at 94¢ on Kalshi, closing July 1, 2027. The market is pricing an extremely high probability (88%) that Hormuz transit calls will exceed 60 on a 7-day moving average before July 2027, yet the asymmetric yield profile—607.5% for No versus 11.3% for Yes—suggests significant tail risk that the market may be underpricing geopolitical disruption scenarios.
Analysis
The market is pricing an extremely high probability (88%) that Hormuz transit calls will exceed 60 on a 7-day moving average before July 2027, yet the asymmetric yield profile—607.5% for No versus 11.3% for Yes—suggests significant tail risk that the market may be underpricing geopolitical disruption scenarios. The dramatic 7-point price surge from 11¢ to 88¢ combined with extraordinarily high realized volatility (2735%) and a vol ratio of 37.78 indicates this market has experienced substantial information arrival and repricing, though current 24-hour volume of just $5,114 and open interest of $3,098 raise liquidity concerns for position sizing.
Resolution rules
If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before July 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270701 yes 100