Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 6 and 8%?
Prediction markets currently give a 17% probability that Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 6 an.... This contract trades at 17¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 365.7% annualized yield on Yes contracts versus just 11.4% on No, suggesting the 18¢ price significantly undervalues the probability of a 6-8% Democratic margin despite over 18 months until the 2026 midterms.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 365.7% annualized yield on Yes contracts versus just 11.4% on No, suggesting the 18¢ price significantly undervalues the probability of a 6-8% Democratic margin despite over 18 months until the 2026 midterms. The minimal 24-hour volume of $10.50 against $1,565.89 open interest indicates severe liquidity constraints that likely explain the wide 3¢ spread and may be artificially suppressing the Yes price. With a moderate cliff risk index of 6 and neutral regime conditions, the primary concern is illiquidity rather than fundamental uncertainty, making this a potentially mispriced contrarian opportunity for patient capital.
Resolution rules
If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 6 and 8 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B7 yes 100