Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 14 and 16%

30-day trend

Analysis

This contract resolves based on the final Democratic advantage in total votes cast for House candidates nationwide in November 2026, specifically whether that margin falls between 14% and 16%. Currently priced at 14%, this reflects relatively low confidence in this narrow outcome band. The probability is driven primarily by baseline assumptions about midterm dynamics and historical voting patterns. A 14-16% Democratic margin would represent an exceptionally strong performance, roughly double the party's typical midterm gains. Movement in this probability will depend on economic conditions through fall 2026, approval ratings, and seat-by-seat polling trends as the election approaches. The November 2026 general election will definitively resolve whether this outcome occurs.

• ›Historical midterm House popular vote margins have rarely exceeded 8-10%, making a 14-16% Democratic margin a statistical outlier requiring substantial favorable conditions
• ›Economic indicators and presidential approval ratings in summer-fall 2026 will significantly influence voter turnout composition and swing-voter behavior
• ›Real-time polling averages from September through October 2026 will provide the most direct signal; a 5+ point shift in aggregate data would meaningfully alter this probability
• ›State-level redistricting effects from 2022 remain locked in, creating a fixed baseline that constrains how much the national popular vote can shift from current structural positioning
• ›The specific definition requires precision within a 2-point band rather than a directional outcome, meaning uncertainty about the exact margin compounds at this probability level

What moved the line

• Jun 18Democrats, 10 to 12%↓3pp18→15¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in election 2026

• Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Senate Judiciary Committee holds a hearing for, or votes to report, a district-court or U.S.-attorney nomination associated with a state where a sitting home-state senator has not returned an affirmative blue slip before Jan 1, 2028last 35% · 1d
• Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-1last 4% · 1d
• Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02last 47% · 1d
• Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17last 45% · 1d
• Will Christopher Gallant be the Democratic nominee for NY-01last 16% · 1d

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds