Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 14 and 16%
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 15% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
15%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$14K
7 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
435 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between
Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 10 and 12%?: Democrats, 10 to 12%
KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B11
Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 8 and 10%?: Democrats, 8 to 10%
KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B9
Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 6 and 8%?: Democrats, 6 to 8%
KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B7
Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 4 and 6%?: Democrats, 4 to 6%
KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B5
Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 12 and 14%?: Democrats, 12 to 14%
KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B13
Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 2 and 4%?: Democrats, 2 to 4%
KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B3
Cluster 2
Will Republicans win the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote
Analysis
This contract estimates a 13% probability that Democrats will win the 2026 House popular vote by 14-16 percentage points. The current assessment reflects market pricing across seven related contracts, with broader uncertainty around the final Democratic margin. Markets currently assign higher probability to smaller Democratic margins (6-8% at 20¢) and Republican popular vote victory (11¢), suggesting traders expect a closer outcome than a 14-16% Democratic win. The key driver of this specific range's low probability is that it represents a narrower band within a wider range of possible Democratic margins. Resolution depends on November 2026 election results, which will establish the final popular vote totals and determine the margin precisely. Between now and November, economic data, approval ratings, and congressional activity will inform updated forecasts.
- ›Markets price Republican victory in the House popular vote at 89%, making any Democratic margin above zero a lower-probability scenario
- ›The 14-16% band sits between more heavily traded ranges (6-8% at 20¢ and 12-14% at 7¢), suggesting moderate uncertainty about margin size within Democratic-win scenarios
- ›Current economic conditions, inflation, unemployment rates, and presidential approval ratings will significantly influence voter behavior and final margins
- ›Midterm historical patterns show parties controlling the presidency typically lose House seats, affecting baseline expectations for 2026 dynamics
- ›The contract resolves based on official House national popular vote totals published by the House Clerk after November 2026 elections
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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