Will Christina Bohannan be the Democratic nominee for IA-01?
Prediction markets currently give a 95% probability that Will Christina Bohannan be the Democratic nominee for IA-01?. This contract trades at 95¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme dysfunction with zero liquidity ($0 open interest and volume) and a nonsensical 8¢ spread at a 0¢ price point, suggesting no active trading or pricing discovery.
Analysis
This market shows extreme dysfunction with zero liquidity ($0 open interest and volume) and a nonsensical 8¢ spread at a 0¢ price point, suggesting no active trading or pricing discovery. The 655.4% implied yield on the "No" side is a mathematical artifact of the near-zero price and indicates the market lacks sufficient participation to generate reliable probability estimates. With 563 days until expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 10, this appears to be a dead market that should be avoided until meaningful liquidity emerges.
Resolution rules
If Christina Bohannan wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 IA-01 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXIAPRIMARY-01D26-CBOH yes 100