Will Ashley WolfTornabane be the Democratic nominee for IA-04?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will Ashley WolfTornabane be the Democratic nominee for IA-04?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 8¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 8¢ spread. The astronomical 2096.5% implied yield on the Yes side suggests severe mispricing or that the market lacks sufficient trading activity to establish a fair price, particularly given the 563-day timeframe to the 2027 close date. The neutral regime score and modest 32 cliff risk index indicate no immediate catalysts, but traders should be cautious given the zero liquidity and potential for sharp repricing once volume emerges.
Resolution rules
If Ashley WolfTornabane wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 IA-04 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXIAPRIMARY-04D26-AWOL yes 100