What is the current probability for "Will David Dawson be the Democratic nominee for IA-04?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 85¢ (85% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on November 3, 2027. 561 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will David Dawson be the Democratic nominee for IA-04?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 15.3% and 277.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will David Dawson be the Democratic nominee for IA-04?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will David Dawson be the Democratic nominee for IA-04?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 85% probability that Will David Dawson be the Democratic nominee for IA-04?. This contract trades at 85¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price potentially unreliable despite the 8¢ spread.

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85¢mid

Bid/Ask 81/89¢·Spread 8¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes Nov 3, 2027·561d remaining

KXIAPRIMARY-04D26-DDAW

Analysis

2d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price potentially unreliable despite the 8¢ spread. The massive disparity between the Yes implied yield (15.2%) and No implied yield (276.3%) suggests severe mispricing or a complete absence of market participants willing to trade at these levels. With 563 days until expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 4, there's meaningful uncertainty around the nomination process, yet the stagnant 7-day price action (flat at 81¢) indicates no recent information has moved traders to reassess Dawson's chances.

Resolution rules

If David Dawson wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 IA-04 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 15.3%

IY (No) 277.5%

Adj IY 139%

CRI 4

Overround -0.1%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	15.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	277.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	139%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

8¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:17:46 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXIAPRIMARY-04D26-DDAW yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →