Will Kaylee Peterson be the Democratic nominee for ID-01?
Prediction markets currently give a 98% probability that Will Kaylee Peterson be the Democratic nominee for ID-01?. This contract trades at 98¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market is pricing Peterson as an overwhelming favorite at 98¢ with minimal trading activity ($0 in 24h volume) and thin liquidity ($2,057 open interest), suggesting limited conviction despite the extreme probability.
Analysis
This market is pricing Peterson as an overwhelming favorite at 98¢ with minimal trading activity ($0 in 24h volume) and thin liquidity ($2,057 open interest), suggesting limited conviction despite the extreme probability. The 7-day decline from 97¢ to 94¢ indicates recent skepticism, though the price remains near all-time highs with a wide 5¢ spread reflecting low market depth. The asymmetric 1011% implied yield on the No side is a classic illiquidity artifact—with 566 days to expiry, this market appears to be a consensus belief with insufficient capital to challenge it rather than a genuinely efficient price discovery mechanism.
Resolution rules
If Kaylee Peterson wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 ID-01 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXIDPRIMARY-01D26-KPET yes 100