Will the minimum SP500 value reach below 6100.01 by Jan 1, 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 50% probability that Will the minimum SP500 value reach below 6100.01 by Jan 1, 2027?. This contract trades at 50¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market is pricing a 50% probability that the S&P 500 will dip below 6100.01 at some point during 2026, reflecting significant uncertainty about potential market corrections over the next 259 days.
Analysis
This market is pricing a 50% probability that the S&P 500 will dip below 6100.01 at some point during 2026, reflecting significant uncertainty about potential market corrections over the next 259 days. The extreme realized volatility of 2061% and vol ratio of 11.10 suggest the market has experienced wild price swings, with the contract dropping sharply from 65¢ to 50¢ over the past week, indicating recent bearish sentiment despite the neutral regime score. Liquidity is thin at $19,623.86 open interest and just $621.37 in 24-hour volume, creating a 10¢ spread and inflated annualized yields of 140.7% on both sides—typical for binary events far from expiry with low trading activity.
Resolution rules
If the value of the S&P 500 index value starting Jan 1, 2026 and ending on Jan 1, 2027 is below 6100.01, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXINXMINY-01JAN2027-6100.01 yes 100