What is the current probability for "When will OpenAI IPO?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 20¢ (20% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on October 1, 2026. 162 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "When will OpenAI IPO?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1274.6% and 39.7% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "When will OpenAI IPO?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

When will OpenAI IPO?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 20% probability that When will OpenAI IPO?. This contract trades at 20¢ on Kalshi, closing October 1, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 7¢ spread, making the 18¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.

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20¢

Bid/Ask 15/20¢·Spread 5¢·Vol $0·OI $2,893.64·Closes Oct 1, 2026·162d remaining

KXIPOOPENAI-26OCT01

7-day price6 snapshots · 17 regime

16¢15¢ current

Apr 84¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 7¢ spread, making the 18¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The astronomical 1766.5% implied yield on the Yes side suggests severe mispricing or reflects genuine skepticism about an OpenAI IPO within 16 months, though the recent price spike from 4¢ to 11¢ over seven days indicates some shifting sentiment. With only $2.4k open interest and a high cliff risk index of 8, this market lacks the depth to support meaningful capital deployment.

Resolution rules

If OpenAI confirms an IPO before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1274.6%

IY (No) 39.7%

Adj IY 637%

CRI 6

Overround 3.5%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1274.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	39.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	637%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	6	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	3.5%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

5¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:30:46 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXIPOOPENAI-26OCT01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →