When will OpenAI IPO?
Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that When will OpenAI IPO?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Kalshi, closing September 1, 2026. The market is pricing in only a 10% probability of an OpenAI IPO by September 2026, but the extreme 6,385.7% implied yield on the Yes side suggests severe illiquidity rather than genuine conviction—the $2,720.81 open interest and zero 24-hour volume indicate this contract is essentially inactive.
Analysis
The market is pricing in only a 10% probability of an OpenAI IPO by September 2026, but the extreme 6,385.7% implied yield on the Yes side suggests severe illiquidity rather than genuine conviction—the $2,720.81 open interest and zero 24-hour volume indicate this contract is essentially inactive. The recent price decline from 6¢ to 4¢ over seven days combined with the wide 6¢ spread reflects thin order books, making any position difficult to exit at fair value. With 137 days to expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 24, this market appears abandoned by traders and should be treated with caution due to execution risk.
Resolution rules
If OpenAI confirms an IPO before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXIPOOPENAI-26SEP01 yes 100