What is the current probability for "When will SpaceX IPO?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 89¢ (89% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on September 1, 2026. 132 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "When will SpaceX IPO?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 34.1% and 2232.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "When will SpaceX IPO?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

When will SpaceX IPO?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 89% probability that When will SpaceX IPO?. This contract trades at 89¢ on Kalshi, closing September 1, 2026. The market is pricing in a high 85% probability of SpaceX IPO by September 2026, but the extremely asymmetric implied yields (43.3% for Yes vs.

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89¢

Bid/Ask 89/90¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $104.32·OI $50,263.81·Closes Sep 1, 2026·132d remaining

KXIPOSPACEX-26SEP01

7-day price58 snapshots · 6 regime

90¢89¢ current

Apr 881¢Apr 19

Analysis

4d ago

The market is pricing in a high 85% probability of SpaceX IPO by September 2026, but the extremely asymmetric implied yields (43.3% for Yes vs. 1634.4% for No) signal severe liquidity constraints rather than genuine conviction—the $49,866 open interest with only $73 in daily volume suggests this contract is illiquid and potentially mispriced. The recent 3-cent decline over seven days combined with a moderate 6 Cliff Risk Index indicates some skepticism creeping in, though the tight 2-cent spread suggests at least marginal market participation near current levels.

Resolution rules

If SpaceX confirms an IPO before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 34.1%

IY (No) 2232.6%

Adj IY 1116%

CRI 8

Overround 9.9%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	34.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	2232.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1116%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	8	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	9.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:29:58 PM

Observability highEvent type financial

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXIPOSPACEX-26SEP01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →