Will SpaceX IPO in 2026?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 46% across 15 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
46%
15 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$393K
15 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
94 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 15 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 14% of their title tokens — “Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least” vs “Will the number of U.S. states that formally adopt a binding state-level moratorium on data-center development be at least”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least
Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 10 percentage points?
KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIND-26NOV03-AL10
Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 6 percentage points?
KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIND-26NOV03-AL6
Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 2 percentage points?
KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIND-26NOV03-AL2
Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 8 percentage points?
KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIND-26NOV03-AL8
Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 4 percentage points?
KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIND-26NOV03-AL4
Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 12 percentage points?
KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIND-26NOV03-AL12
Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 16 percentage points?
KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIND-26NOV03-AL16
Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 14 percentage points?
KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIND-26NOV03-AL14
Cluster 2
Will the number of U.S. states that formally adopt a binding state-level moratorium on data-center development be at least
Will the number of U.S. states that formally adopt a binding state-level moratorium on data-center development be at least 3 in 2026?
KXMORATORIUMCOUNT-26DEC31-AL3
Will the number of U.S. states that formally adopt a binding state-level moratorium on data-center development be at least 5 in 2026?
KXMORATORIUMCOUNT-26DEC31-AL5
Will the number of U.S. states that formally adopt a binding state-level moratorium on data-center development be at least 4 in 2026?
KXMORATORIUMCOUNT-26DEC31-AL4
Cluster 3
Who will win the 2026 Maryland State Senate District 2 general election
Cluster 4
Will Iran's score in the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index be at least 6 in the 2026 edition
Cluster 5
Will China announce looser rare-earth export curbs to the U.S. in Sep 2026
Will China announce looser rare-earth export curbs to the U.S. in Sep 2026?
KXCHINARARE-26-26OCT01
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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