Will SpaceX IPO in 2026?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 99% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
99%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4
4 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
161 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the Total Public Debt on July 31, 2026 be above 39
Will the Total Public Debt on July 31, 2026 be above 39.24T?
KXTRUFPDEBT-26JUL31-T39.24
Will the Total Public Debt on July 31, 2026 be above 39.69T?
KXTRUFPDEBT-26JUL31-T39.69
Will the Total Public Debt on July 31, 2026 be above 39.64T?
KXTRUFPDEBT-26JUL31-T39.64
Will the Total Public Debt on July 31, 2026 be above 39.59T?
KXTRUFPDEBT-26JUL31-T39.59
Will the Total Public Debt on July 31, 2026 be above 39.94T?
KXTRUFPDEBT-26JUL31-T39.94
Will the Total Public Debt on July 31, 2026 be above 39.89T?
KXTRUFPDEBT-26JUL31-T39.89
Will the Total Public Debt on July 31, 2026 be above 39.84T?
KXTRUFPDEBT-26JUL31-T39.84
Will the Total Public Debt on July 31, 2026 be above 39.79T?
KXTRUFPDEBT-26JUL31-T39.79
Will the Total Public Debt on July 31, 2026 be above 39.74T?
KXTRUFPDEBT-26JUL31-T39.74
Will the Total Public Debt on July 31, 2026 be above 39.54T?
KXTRUFPDEBT-26JUL31-T39.54
Will the Total Public Debt on July 31, 2026 be above 39.49T?
KXTRUFPDEBT-26JUL31-T39.49
Will the Total Public Debt on July 31, 2026 be above 39.44T?
KXTRUFPDEBT-26JUL31-T39.44
Will the Total Public Debt on July 31, 2026 be above 39.39T?
KXTRUFPDEBT-26JUL31-T39.39
Will the Total Public Debt on July 31, 2026 be above 39.34T?
KXTRUFPDEBT-26JUL31-T39.34
Will the Total Public Debt on July 31, 2026 be above 39.29T?
KXTRUFPDEBT-26JUL31-T39.29
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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