Will SpaceX IPO in 2026?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 47% across 15 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
47%
15 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$166K
15 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
116 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
9 clusters across 15 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 10% of their title tokens — “Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above” vs “Above 300000 gonorrhea cases in the United States during 2026”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 40 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?
KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A40
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?
KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A60
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 70 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?
KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A70
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 90 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?
KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A90
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 50 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?
KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A50
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 100 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?
KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A100
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 80 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?
KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A80
Cluster 2
Above 300000 gonorrhea cases in the United States during 2026
Above 300000 gonorrhea cases in the United States during 2026
KXGONORRHEACOUNT-27JAN01-A300000
Cluster 3
Above 325000 gonorrhea cases in the United States during 2026
Above 325000 gonorrhea cases in the United States during 2026
KXGONORRHEACOUNT-27JAN01-A325000
Cluster 4
Above 500000 gonorrhea cases in the United States during 2026
Above 500000 gonorrhea cases in the United States during 2026
KXGONORRHEACOUNT-27JAN01-A500000
Cluster 5
Above 285000 gonorrhea cases in the United States during 2026
Above 285000 gonorrhea cases in the United States during 2026
KXGONORRHEACOUNT-27JAN01-A285000
Cluster 6
Above 400000 gonorrhea cases in the United States during 2026
Above 400000 gonorrhea cases in the United States during 2026
KXGONORRHEACOUNT-27JAN01-A400000
Cluster 7
Above 350000 gonorrhea cases in the United States during 2026
Above 350000 gonorrhea cases in the United States during 2026
KXGONORRHEACOUNT-27JAN01-A350000
Cluster 8
Above 450000 gonorrhea cases in the United States during 2026
Above 450000 gonorrhea cases in the United States during 2026
KXGONORRHEACOUNT-27JAN01-A450000
Cluster 9
Above 375000 gonorrhea cases in the United States during 2026
Above 375000 gonorrhea cases in the United States during 2026
KXGONORRHEACOUNT-27JAN01-A375000
What moved the line
- Sep 3Above 450000 gonorrhea cases in the United States during 2026↓18pp46→28¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 4Above 450000 gonorrhea cases in the United States during 2026↑17pp28→45¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 2Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 40 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?↓7pp29→22¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 3Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 50 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?↓7pp19→12¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 3Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?↓6pp19→13¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in ai tech
- How many SpaceX Starship launches in 2026?last 35% · 1d
- Will OpenAI go public?last 14% · 1d
- Will the NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $0.5 at 4 PM ET on Jun 26last 97% · 3d
- Will the NVIDIA H200 compute per hour price be above $3 at 4 PM ET on Jul 03last 97% · 3d
- Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $4.50 in August 2026last 92% · 3d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in ai tech.
In ai tech
Related reading
AI model race heats up with GPT-6 looming and high volume on 'Best AI' contracts
OpenAI is heavily favored to release GPT-6 soon (99¢), but the market for 'Best AI on Dec 31, 2026' shows a tight race, with Anthropic (61¢) leading over OpenAI (22¢). This competitive dynamic is drawing significant volume and trader interest.
AI Race Heats Up: GPT‑6 Release Nears Certainty, But Best AI Title Still Open
OpenAI’s GPT‑6 release before Oct 1 is priced at 87¢, while the ‘Best AI on Dec 31, 2026’ market shows OpenAI leading at 68¢ but with heavy volume on multiple sub‑contracts. The discrepancy between the generic ‘OpenAI’ contract (68¢) and the specific ticker KXLLM1-26DEC31‑OAI (20¢) presents an arbitrage opportunity. Traders should monitor upcoming model benchmarks.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.