Will the Japan inflation rate MoM for March 2026 be above -0.1%?
Prediction markets currently give a 99% probability that Will the Japan inflation rate MoM for March 2026 be above -0.1%?. This contract trades at 99¢ on Kalshi, closing April 23, 2026. This market is trading at an extreme 98¢ with just hours until expiration (closes 4/17/2026), reflecting near-certainty that Japan's March 2026 MoM inflation will exceed -0.1%, yet the unusually high Risk-Adjusted IY of 100,000% and Cliff Risk Index of 24 signal acute tail risk and potential resolution uncertainty despite the overwhelming probability.
Analysis
This market is trading at an extreme 98¢ with just hours until expiration (closes 4/17/2026), reflecting near-certainty that Japan's March 2026 MoM inflation will exceed -0.1%, yet the unusually high Risk-Adjusted IY of 100,000% and Cliff Risk Index of 24 signal acute tail risk and potential resolution uncertainty despite the overwhelming probability. The sharp 6-cent rally over seven days (90¢ to 96¢) combined with very low 24-hour volume of just $29 against $12,143 open interest suggests illiquidity and possible late-stage positioning ahead of imminent data release, making this a binary event with minimal time for repricing.
Resolution rules
If the Japan inflation rate MoM for March 2026 is above -0.1%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXJPMOMINF-26APR17-T-0.1 yes 100