Will John Fleming win the first round of the 2026 Louisiana Senate Republican primary?
Prediction markets currently give a 17% probability that Will John Fleming win the first round of the 2026 Louisiana Senate Republican primary?. This contract trades at 17¢ on Kalshi, closing May 16, 2027. John Fleming's primary odds have doubled over the past week to 16¢, though the contract remains illiquid with just $126 in 24-hour volume and $1,772.76 open interest.
Analysis
John Fleming's primary odds have doubled over the past week to 16¢, though the contract remains illiquid with just $126 in 24-hour volume and $1,772.76 open interest. The extreme 485.7% implied yield on the Yes side suggests either significant mispricing or very low confidence in Fleming's viability, creating a potential arbitrage opportunity if the recent price surge reflects genuine momentum rather than thin-market volatility. With 395 days until expiry and a tight 1¢ spread, this market has room for deeper price discovery as the 2026 primary cycle approaches.
Also on polymarket at 24¢(Δ -7¢)
Resolution rules
If John Fleming wins the first round of the 2026 Louisiana Senate Republican primary, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXLARSENR1-26MAY16-JFLE yes 100