Who will win the next Lebanese general election?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Who will win the next Lebanese general election?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Kalshi, closing May 11, 2028. This market shows significant bullish momentum with the price surging 56% over seven days from 16¢ to 25¢, suggesting recent positive developments for Amal Movement's electoral prospects.
Analysis
This market shows significant bullish momentum with the price surging 56% over seven days from 16¢ to 25¢, suggesting recent positive developments for Amal Movement's electoral prospects. The 145% annualized yield on the Yes side is exceptionally attractive but comes with meaningful risk, as evidenced by the low $200 daily volume and modest $1,619 open interest, indicating thin liquidity that could amplify price swings. With 755 days until the May 2028 expiration, the cliff risk index of 3 suggests moderate tail risk, though the neutral regime score and tight 1¢ spread provide some stability to this speculative position.
Resolution rules
If the winner of the next Lebanese general election is Amal Movement, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXLEBANONPARLI-26-AMAL yes 100