Who will win the next Lebanese general election?
Prediction markets currently give a 21% probability that Who will win the next Lebanese general election?. This contract trades at 21¢ on Kalshi, closing May 11, 2028. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 391% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 6% on the No side, suggesting the 12¢ price significantly undervalues Lebanese Forces' chances relative to market consensus on alternatives.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 391% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 6% on the No side, suggesting the 12¢ price significantly undervalues Lebanese Forces' chances relative to market consensus on alternatives. The sharp 6-cent price decline over seven days combined with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 4¢ spread indicates thin liquidity and potential pricing inefficiency, though the modest $2,249 open interest limits confidence in any directional signal. With 755 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 8, this market carries substantial uncertainty around Lebanese political developments, making the extreme yield differential noteworthy but potentially unreliable for serious capital deployment.
Resolution rules
If the winner of the next Lebanese general election is Lebanese Forces, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXLEBANONPARLI-26-FORCES yes 100