Will over 2.5 maps be played in the FlyQuest vs. LYON League of Legends match?
Prediction markets currently give a 1% probability that Will over 2.5 maps be played in the FlyQuest vs. LYON League of Legends match?. This contract trades at 1¢ on Kalshi, closing May 5, 2026. This market displays extreme dysfunction with a 0¢ price despite a 13¢ spread and astronomical 3828% implied yield on the Yes side, indicating severe illiquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine market conviction that under 2.5 maps will occur.
Analysis
This market displays extreme dysfunction with a 0¢ price despite a 13¢ spread and astronomical 3828% implied yield on the Yes side, indicating severe illiquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine market conviction that under 2.5 maps will occur. With zero volume and open interest over 16 days to expiry, there's insufficient liquidity to execute any meaningful position, and the cliff risk index of 2 suggests resolution uncertainty or potential event cancellation. The static 7-day price movement (37¢ → 37¢) combined with the original match date of April 21 already passed suggests this market may be stale or improperly maintained, raising questions about whether the event actually occurred or was rescheduled.
Resolution rules
If over 2.5 maps are played in the Esports World Cup North America Qualifier 2026: FlyQuest vs. LYON League of Legends match originally scheduled for Apr 21, 2026 at 2:00 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXLOLTOTALMAPS-26APR211400FLYLY-3 yes 100