Will Sadiq Khan win the 2028 London mayoral election?
Prediction markets currently give a 22% probability that Will Sadiq Khan win the 2028 London mayoral election?. This contract trades at 22¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2029. Khan's contract has collapsed from 20¢ to 18¢ over the past week despite over a year remaining until resolution, suggesting deteriorating sentiment around his re-election prospects.
Analysis
Khan's contract has collapsed from 20¢ to 18¢ over the past week despite over a year remaining until resolution, suggesting deteriorating sentiment around his re-election prospects. The 131.5% implied yield on the Yes side is exceptionally high relative to the neutral regime, but this is paired with near-zero liquidity ($0 in 24h volume and only $1,187 open interest), making the price potentially unreliable and vulnerable to manipulation. The 4¢ spread and moderate cliff risk (4/10) indicate this is a thin, speculative market where large positions could significantly move pricing.
Resolution rules
If Sadiq Khan wins the 2028 London mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXLONDONMAYOR-28MAY01-SKHA yes 100