Will exactly 3 Senate Republican members lose their primary in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Will exactly 3 Senate Republican members lose their primary in 2026?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. The extreme 2886% implied yield on Yes contracts reflects the market's heavy skepticism toward exactly 3 GOP Senate primary losses, pricing this outcome at just 12 cents despite 198 days of remaining time for political developments.
Analysis
The extreme 2886% implied yield on Yes contracts reflects the market's heavy skepticism toward exactly 3 GOP Senate primary losses, pricing this outcome at just 12 cents despite 198 days of remaining time for political developments. The realized volatility of 8882% and recent sharp price movement from 2¢ to 7¢ over seven days suggest significant uncertainty and potential information arrival, though the modest 24-hour volume of $5,143.78 indicates thin liquidity that could amplify price swings. The 5-cent spread and elevated cliff risk index (16) warn that this binary outcome faces considerable uncertainty, making it a speculative position rather than a liquid betting market.
Resolution rules
If the number of Republican Senate members that lose their primary in 2026 before Nov 3, 2026 is exactly 3, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXLOSEPRIMARYSENATER-26NOV03-3 yes 100