Who will win the next Malaysian general election?
Prediction markets currently give a 50% probability that Who will win the next Malaysian general election?. This contract trades at 50¢ on Kalshi, closing November 29, 2028. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $45 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 50¢ midprice potentially unreliable despite the tight 1¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $45 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 50¢ midprice potentially unreliable despite the tight 1¢ spread. The asymmetric implied yields (43.0% for No versus 33.8% for Yes) suggest the market is pricing in meaningful uncertainty about the PH-anchored coalition's prospects, though with nearly three years to expiry, this yield differential may reflect risk premium rather than directional conviction. The modest 2¢ price appreciation over seven days and neutral regime score indicate this is a relatively stable, low-conviction market that would require significant new information about Malaysian politics to move meaningfully.
Resolution rules
If the winner of the next Malaysian general election expected to be held in 2027 at the latest is PH-anchored coalition, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMALAYSIAPARLI-2-27-PHA yes 100