Will the England win the 2026 Men's World Cup?
Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Will the England win the 2026 Men's World Cup?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Kalshi, closing July 18, 2028. England's 11% probability is pricing in significant underperformance relative to their recent tournament runs, with the Yes side offering an exceptional 358.6% implied yield that reflects the extreme asymmetry between the 11¢ price and potential 100¢ resolution.
Analysis
England's 11% probability is pricing in significant underperformance relative to their recent tournament runs, with the Yes side offering an exceptional 358.6% implied yield that reflects the extreme asymmetry between the 11¢ price and potential 100¢ resolution. The market shows healthy liquidity at $439k open interest despite modest daily volume of $6,971, and the zero spread suggests reasonable market efficiency, though the 824-day timeframe to the 2026 tournament creates meaningful cliff risk (score of 8) as unforeseen circumstances could dramatically shift England's odds. The neutral regime and flat 7-day price action indicate this valuation has stabilized, making the high Yes-side yield potentially attractive for contrarian bettors believing England's actual tournament chances exceed 11%.
Resolution rules
If England wins the 2026 Men's World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMENWORLDCUP-26-GB yes 100