How high will 30yr mortgage rate get this year?
Prediction markets currently give a 43% probability that How high will 30yr mortgage rate get this year?. This contract trades at 43¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market has experienced significant bearish pressure, declining 17 cents over seven days (59¢ to 42¢), suggesting reduced conviction that 30-year mortgage rates will exceed 6.6% by end-2026.
Analysis
The market has experienced significant bearish pressure, declining 17 cents over seven days (59¢ to 42¢), suggesting reduced conviction that 30-year mortgage rates will exceed 6.6% by end-2026. The 9-cent spread and minimal $3.79 daily volume indicate thin liquidity, which combined with the 194.2% implied yield on the Yes side, creates outsized risk-reward asymmetry that may not reflect true probability given the 260-day timeframe. With current rates near historical lows and the market pricing only 51% probability of a 6.6%+ breach, this appears fairly valued but illiquid for meaningful position-building.
Resolution rules
If the 30-Yr FRM is above 6.6% in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMORTGAGERATE-26DEC-T6.6 yes 100