What is the current probability for "Will Brian Miller be the Democratic nominee for MT-02?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 82¢ (82% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on November 3, 2027. 561 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Brian Miller be the Democratic nominee for MT-02?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 26.6% and 159.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Brian Miller be the Democratic nominee for MT-02?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Brian Miller be the Democratic nominee for MT-02?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 82% probability that Will Brian Miller be the Democratic nominee for MT-02?. This contract trades at 82¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 8¢ spread, suggesting virtually no trading activity or market maker presence.

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82¢

Bid/Ask 71/78¢·Spread 7¢·Vol $0·OI $600·Closes Nov 3, 2027·561d remaining

KXMTPRIMARY-02D26-BMIL

7-day price8 snapshots · 7 regime

91¢71¢ current

Apr 1839¢Apr 20

Analysis

47h ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 8¢ spread, suggesting virtually no trading activity or market maker presence. The 0¢ price implies Brian Miller has essentially no chance at the Democratic nomination, though the astronomical 655.8% implied yield on "No" reflects the pricing distortion from illiquidity rather than genuine conviction. With 563 days until expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 10, this market lacks sufficient depth to be tradeable and should be approached with caution.

Resolution rules

If Brian Miller wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 MT-02 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 26.6%

IY (No) 159.4%

Adj IY 80%

CRI 2

Overround -0.1%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	26.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	159.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	80%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

7¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:13:09 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXMTPRIMARY-02D26-BMIL yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →