What is the current probability for "Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 26199.99 at the end of Apr 21, 2026 at 3pm EDT?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 50¢ (50% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on April 21, 2026. 0 days remaining.

Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 26199.99 at the end of Apr 21, 2026 at 3pm EDT?

Prediction markets currently give a 50% probability that Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 26199.99 at the end of Apr 21, 2026 at 3pm EDT?. This contract trades at 50¢ on Kalshi, closing April 21, 2026.

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50¢mid

Bid/Ask 0/100¢·Spread 100¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes Apr 21, 2026·0d remaining

KXNASDAQ100U-26APR21H1500-T26199.99

Resolution rules

If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Apr 21, 2026 at 3pm EDT is above 26199.99, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Adj IY 50000%

CRI 32

Overround 62.2%

▶ Full indicator table (3)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
Adj IY	50000%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	32	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	62.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

100¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:16:02 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 6:53:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNASDAQ100U-26APR21H1500-T26199.99 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →