What is the current probability for "Who Will Be on the Cover of NBA 2K27?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 4¢ (4% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 255 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Who Will Be on the Cover of NBA 2K27?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 3438.5% and 6.0% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Who Will Be on the Cover of NBA 2K27?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Who Will Be on the Cover of NBA 2K27?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Who Will Be on the Cover of NBA 2K27?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This illiquid micro-market on Jayson Tatum as NBA 2K27's cover athlete shows extreme yield characteristics with a 3374% implied yield on the Yes side, though the $18 open interest and zero 24-hour volume suggest minimal real conviction behind the 4¢ price.

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4¢

Bid/Ask 0/4¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $0·OI $18·Closes Jan 1, 2027·255d remaining

KXNBA2KCOVER-27-JAY

7-day price5 snapshots · 2 regime

4¢4¢ current

Apr 81¢Apr 12

Analysis

4d ago

This illiquid micro-market on Jayson Tatum as NBA 2K27's cover athlete shows extreme yield characteristics with a 3374% implied yield on the Yes side, though the $18 open interest and zero 24-hour volume suggest minimal real conviction behind the 4¢ price. The 260-day timeframe to resolution and neutral regime score provide reasonable time for information to emerge, but the Cliff Risk Index of 24 indicates meaningful binary event risk, likely stemming from 2K Sports' cover announcement timing being unpredictable.

Resolution rules

If Jayson Tatum is announced as the main global cover athlete for NBA 2K27 before Jan 1, 2027 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 3438.5%

IY (No) 6.0%

Adj IY 1719%

CRI 24

Overround 0.5%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	3438.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	6.0%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1719%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.5%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

4¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:52:08 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:38:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNBA2KCOVER-27-JAY yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →