What is the current probability for "Will John Cavanaugh be the Democratic nominee for NE-2?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 37¢ (37% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on November 3, 2026. 196 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will John Cavanaugh be the Democratic nominee for NE-2?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 378.5% and 91.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will John Cavanaugh be the Democratic nominee for NE-2?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will John Cavanaugh be the Democratic nominee for NE-2?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 37% probability that Will John Cavanaugh be the Democratic nominee for NE-2?. This contract trades at 37¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. The market has experienced dramatic volatility, plummeting 21 percentage points over seven days (76¢ to 55¢), suggesting significant new information has shifted sentiment against Cavanaugh's nomination chances.

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37¢

Bid/Ask 33/38¢·Spread 5¢·Vol $38·OI $5,163.15·Closes Nov 3, 2026·196d remaining

KXNE2D-26-JCAV

7-day price167 snapshots · 20 regime

80¢33¢ current

Apr 833¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

The market has experienced dramatic volatility, plummeting 21 percentage points over seven days (76¢ to 55¢), suggesting significant new information has shifted sentiment against Cavanaugh's nomination chances. The extreme realized volatility of 595% and vol ratio of 5.22 indicate this is a highly unstable market, though the tight 1¢ spread and reasonable $4.2K open interest suggest adequate liquidity for a niche political contract. The asymmetric implied yields (149% for Yes vs. 222% for No) reflect the recent bearish repricing, making this a high-risk speculation with 201 days until resolution to absorb further developments.

Resolution rules

If John Cavanaugh wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 NE-2 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 378.5%

IY (No) 91.8%

Adj IY 379%

CRI 2

RV 448%

VR 2.64

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	378.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	91.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	379%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	448%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.64	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.7/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

5¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:13:08 PM

Observability mediumEvent type political

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNE2D-26-JCAV yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →