Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before Oct 1, 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 76% probability that Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before Oct 1, 2027?. This contract trades at 76¢ on Kalshi, closing October 1, 2027. This market shows extreme pricing dysfunction with zero open interest and volume, suggesting it may be inactive or newly listed.
Analysis
This market shows extreme pricing dysfunction with zero open interest and volume, suggesting it may be inactive or newly listed. The 0¢ price implies near-zero probability despite a 533-day window and a sitting governor who has previously positioned himself as a national political figure, creating a notable disconnect between market pricing and historical precedent. The 24.1% implied yield on the Yes side combined with zero liquidity makes this untradeworthy, though the recent 2-point price movement (72¢ to 74¢) hints at some sporadic activity that contradicts the reported zero volume.
Resolution rules
If Gavin Newsom has announced that they will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Oct 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNEWSOMRUN-28-27OCT01 yes 100