What will be Auston Matthews's next team?
Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that What will be Auston Matthews's next team?. This contract trades at 14¢ on Kalshi, closing November 1, 2026. This market shows a significant cross-venue arbitrage opportunity, with Kalshi pricing Matthews's next team as Dallas at just 14¢ compared to 31¢ on Polymarket—a 121% spread that suggests meaningful disagreement or liquidity constraints.
Analysis
This market shows a significant cross-venue arbitrage opportunity, with Kalshi pricing Matthews's next team as Dallas at just 14¢ compared to 31¢ on Polymarket—a 121% spread that suggests meaningful disagreement or liquidity constraints. The 14¢ price implies an extraordinarily high 1147% yield on a Yes resolution, but this is heavily discounted by minimal liquidity ($33.68 open interest) and a concerning 6/10 cliff risk index, indicating potential resolution ambiguity around what constitutes his "next team." With 196 days to expiry and near-zero trading volume, this appears to be a low-confidence, illiquid market where the extreme yield reflects scarcity premium rather than genuine probability assessment.
Also on polymarket at 43¢(Δ -29¢)
Resolution rules
If Auston Matthews's next team is the Dallas Stars before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNEXTTEAMNHL-26AMAT-DAL yes 100