What will be Auston Matthews's next team?
Prediction markets currently give a 17% probability that What will be Auston Matthews's next team?. This contract trades at 17¢ on Kalshi, closing November 1, 2026. This market shows a stark 240% cross-venue arbitrage gap, with Kalshi pricing Matthews to the Wild at 17¢ versus Polymarket's 5¢, suggesting significant disagreement on trade probability or potential venue-specific liquidity constraints.
Analysis
This market shows a stark 240% cross-venue arbitrage gap, with Kalshi pricing Matthews to the Wild at 17¢ versus Polymarket's 5¢, suggesting significant disagreement on trade probability or potential venue-specific liquidity constraints. The 912% implied yield on Yes is exceptionally high but comes with thin liquidity ($28.42 open interest, $13.89 daily volume) and a wide 17¢ spread, indicating low confidence and high slippage risk. With 195 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, the market appears speculative rather than information-driven, making the Kalshi price potentially vulnerable to correction toward Polymarket's lower valuation.
Also on polymarket at 5¢(Δ +12¢)
Resolution rules
If Auston Matthews's next team is the Minnesota Wild before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNEXTTEAMNHL-26AMAT-MIN yes 100