Will Maura Sullivan be the Democratic nominee for NH-1?
Prediction markets currently give a 27% probability that Will Maura Sullivan be the Democratic nominee for NH-1?. This contract trades at 27¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a notably wide 405% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either mispricing or genuine uncertainty about Sullivan's nomination prospects.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a notably wide 405% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either mispricing or genuine uncertainty about Sullivan's nomination prospects. The 1¢ spread is deceptively tight given the $1,516 open interest, and the recent price decline from 31¢ to 27¢ over seven days indicates weakening conviction in her candidacy. With 201 days until resolution and low cliff risk, there's time for fundamentals to shift, but the combination of depressed pricing and dead volume suggests this contract may be undervalued or simply abandoned by traders.
Resolution rules
If Maura Sullivan wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 NH-1 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNH1D-26-MSUL yes 100