Will Stefany Shaheen be the Democratic nominee for NH-1
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 46% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
46%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$32
2 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
131 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Maura Sullivan be the Democratic nominee for NH-1
Will Maura Sullivan be the Democratic nominee for NH-1?: Maura Sullivan
KXNH1D-26-MSUL
Cluster 2
Will Stefany Shaheen be the Democratic nominee for NH-1
Will Stefany Shaheen be the Democratic nominee for NH-1?: Stefany Shaheen
KXNH1D-26-SSHA
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Stefany Shaheen will secure the Democratic nomination for New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District. At 30%, the market is pricing in meaningful competition for the seat, suggesting no clear frontrunner has emerged. The incumbent's track record, previous election performance, and primary opposition from other Democrats are central factors affecting this estimate. The nomination will likely be determined by candidate filing deadlines and the primary election itself, typically held in autumn of even-numbered years. Market movement would depend on whether Shaheen formally announces candidacy, faces significant primary challengers, or experiences shifts in district-level Democratic sentiment.
- ›Whether Stefany Shaheen announces official candidacy and commits campaign resources to the race
- ›Primary field composition: the number and profile of competing Democratic candidates seeking the nomination
- ›Historical primary performance data: Shaheen's vote share in previous Democratic primaries for this or related seats
- ›Filing deadline date for the 2026 general election cycle and any candidate announcements before that cutoff
- ›Local polling or endorsement patterns from New Hampshire Democratic Party officials that indicate relative candidate strength
What moved the line
- Jun 23Maura Sullivan↑3pp15→18¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Stefany Shaheen↓3pp77→74¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Senate Judiciary Committee holds a hearing for, or votes to report, a district-court or U.S.-attorney nomination associated with a state where a sitting home-state senator has not returned an affirmative blue slip before Jan 1, 2028last 35% · 1d
- Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-1last 4% · 1d
- Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02last 47% · 1d
- Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17last 45% · 1d
- Will Christopher Gallant be the Democratic nominee for NY-01last 16% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (46% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
Democrats Firming as Favorites to Hold House in 2026
Democrats have strengthened their position to retain control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterms, with contracts rising to 78¢. This shift comes amid strong fundraising and favorable special election results, challenging the historical midterm penalty for the president's party. The Senate race remains a toss-up, with Republicans at 57¢ to take control.
Democratic House Control Strongly Favored at 78¢
Traders are pricing in a 78% probability that Democrats will win control of the House in 2026, while the Senate remains a toss-up with Republicans at 57¢. This balance of power scenario is a key input for midterm election trading strategies.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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