Who will win Jack Adams Award?
Prediction markets currently give a 1% probability that Who will win Jack Adams Award?. This contract trades at 1¢ on Kalshi, closing June 30, 2026. Martin St.
Analysis
Martin St. Louis is trading at a significant discount on Kalshi (1¢) compared to Polymarket (3¢), representing a notable 2-cent cross-venue arbitrage gap that suggests potential mispricing. The market has declined sharply over the past week from 2¢ to 1¢ despite minimal trading activity ($0 in 24h volume), indicating either weak conviction or limited liquidity at current levels. With $3,631 in open interest and over 18 months until expiration (6/30/2026), the low volume and tight 1¢ spread suggest this is a thin, illiquid market where the extreme 1% probability may not reflect true consensus odds.
Also on polymarket at 3¢(Δ -2¢)
Resolution rules
If Martin St. Louis wins the NHL Jack Adams Award in the 2025-26 NHL season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNHLADAMS-26-MSTL yes 100