Game 2: Anaheim at Edmonton Winner?
Prediction markets currently give a 63% probability that Game 2: Anaheim at Edmonton Winner?. This contract trades at 63¢ on Kalshi, closing May 7, 2026. This market displays extreme volatility and pricing inconsistency, with the Yes contract at 63¢ implying a 63% Edmonton win probability yet showing a realized volatility of 5096% and an implied yield on the No side reaching 3567.5%—suggesting severe mispricing or structural arbitrage opportunity.
Analysis
This market displays extreme volatility and pricing inconsistency, with the Yes contract at 63¢ implying a 63% Edmonton win probability yet showing a realized volatility of 5096% and an implied yield on the No side reaching 3567.5%—suggesting severe mispricing or structural arbitrage opportunity. The price has surged dramatically from 11¢ to 63¢ over seven days with only $298.75 in 24-hour volume and $1,148.66 open interest, indicating thin liquidity that may be amplifying price swings and creating execution risk. With 17 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 2, this market appears to be in a high-uncertainty regime where the actual game outcome (scheduled for April 22, 2026) remains genuinely uncertain, though the extreme yield asymmetry warrants caution about whether these prices reflect true probabilities or market dysfunction.
Resolution rules
If EDM Oilers wins the Game 2: Anaheim at Edmonton professional hockey game scheduled for Apr 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNHLGAME-26APR22ANAEDM-EDM yes 100