Game 3: Vegas at Utah Winner?
Prediction markets currently give a 51% probability that Game 3: Vegas at Utah Winner?. This contract trades at 51¢ on Kalshi, closing May 9, 2026. This market shows extreme distress signals with a 43¢ price that has collapsed 74% over seven days (from 10¢ to 39¢), suggesting Utah's Game 3 victory odds have deteriorated sharply.
Analysis
This market shows extreme distress signals with a 43¢ price that has collapsed 74% over seven days (from 10¢ to 39¢), suggesting Utah's Game 3 victory odds have deteriorated sharply. The astronomical implied yields (2888% for Yes, 1180% for No) combined with razor-thin liquidity ($90 daily volume, $100 open interest) and a 4¢ spread indicate this is a highly illiquid micro-market where pricing may be unreliable and subject to significant slippage. With the game scheduled for April 24, 2026 but the market closing May 9, 2026—11 days after the event—there appears to be a critical data issue, as the market should resolve before or on the game date, not after.
Resolution rules
If UTA Mammoth wins the Game 3: Vegas at Utah professional hockey game scheduled for Apr 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNHLGAME-26APR24VGKUTA-UTA yes 100