Will Colorado Avalanche cover -3.5 games in the Los Angeles Kings vs Colorado Avalanche 1st Round series in the 2026 NHL playoffs?
Prediction markets currently give a 30% probability that Will Colorado Avalanche cover -3.5 games in the Los Angeles Kings vs Colorado Avalanche 1st Round series in the 2026 .... This contract trades at 30¢ on Kalshi, closing May 17, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 9,522% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 15¢ price significantly undervalues Colorado's chances of winning a best-of-seven series by more than 3.5 games (i.e., sweeping 4-0 or winning 4-1).
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 9,522% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 15¢ price significantly undervalues Colorado's chances of winning a best-of-seven series by more than 3.5 games (i.e., sweeping 4-0 or winning 4-1). The minimal 24-hour volume of $139.39 and matching open interest indicate severe illiquidity, raising concerns about whether this yield is achievable or merely theoretical given the thin order book. With 28 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 7, the market carries elevated execution risk, though the stable 7-day price action suggests this may be a structural mispricing rather than a volatile sentiment swing.
Resolution rules
If Colorado Avalanche wins by more than 3.5 games in the Los Angeles Kings vs Colorado Avalanche 1st Round series in the 2026 NHL playoffs, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNHLSERIESSPREAD-26LACOLR1-COL4 yes 100