Will Tampa Bay Lightning cover -1.5 games in the Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning 1st Round series in the 2026 NHL playoffs?
Prediction markets currently give a 32% probability that Will Tampa Bay Lightning cover -1.5 games in the Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning 1st Round series in the 20.... This contract trades at 32¢ on Kalshi, closing May 16, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price and 1563.4% implied yield on the Yes side unreliable indicators of true probability rather than reflections of genuine market consensus.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price and 1563.4% implied yield on the Yes side unreliable indicators of true probability rather than reflections of genuine market consensus. The 11¢ spread is notably wide relative to the quoted price, and with only 30 days until expiry and no recent price movement (stuck at 44¢ for 7 days), this appears to be a dead or near-dead market lacking sufficient trader interest to establish meaningful pricing. The astronomical implied yields on both sides suggest the market is essentially non-functional for actual trading purposes.
Resolution rules
If Tampa Bay Lightning wins by more than 1.5 games in the Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning 1st Round series in the 2026 NHL playoffs, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNHLSERIESSPREAD-26MTLTBR1-TB2 yes 100