Will Vegas Golden Knights cover -3.5 games in the Utah Mammoth vs Vegas Golden Knights 1st Round series in the 2026 NHL playoffs?
Prediction markets currently give a 15% probability that Will Vegas Golden Knights cover -3.5 games in the Utah Mammoth vs Vegas Golden Knights 1st Round series in the 2026 N.... This contract trades at 15¢ on Kalshi, closing May 17, 2026. This market exhibits extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest despite a massive 10,704.6% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 0¢ price is likely a stale or erroneous quote rather than genuine market consensus.
Analysis
This market exhibits extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest despite a massive 10,704.6% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 0¢ price is likely a stale or erroneous quote rather than genuine market consensus. The 7-cent spread combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 8 indicates high execution risk, and the recent price movement from 2¢ to 11¢ over seven days suggests some activity, though the current 0¢ display may reflect a data lag. With 28 days until expiry and a first-round playoff series unlikely to see one team win by more than 3.5 games (requiring a 4-0 or 4-1 sweep), the market's extreme yield reflects the genuine rarity of this outcome rather than a true arbitrage opportunity.
Resolution rules
If Vegas Golden Knights wins by more than 3.5 games in the Utah Mammoth vs Vegas Golden Knights 1st Round series in the 2026 NHL playoffs, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNHLSERIESSPREAD-26UTAVGKR1-VGK4 yes 100