Will Madison Sheahan be the Republican nominee for OH-09?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Will Madison Sheahan be the Republican nominee for OH-09?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Kalshi, closing May 5, 2027. This market shows extreme mispricing signals with a 1,264% implied yield on the Yes side despite only 384 days to resolution, suggesting either severe undervaluation or structural illiquidity issues.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing signals with a 1,264% implied yield on the Yes side despite only 384 days to resolution, suggesting either severe undervaluation or structural illiquidity issues. The realized volatility of 2,860% and 7-day price collapse from 12¢ to 7¢ indicate high uncertainty, while the thin $3,661 open interest and 3¢ spread reveal minimal liquidity that could amplify moves further. The 13 cliff risk index and 0.5/hour information arrival rate suggest this market is vulnerable to sudden repricing around primary developments, making the current 8¢ price potentially unreliable for assessing true nomination odds.
Resolution rules
If Madison Sheahan wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 OH-09 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXOH9R-26-MSHE yes 100