How many oil rigs will the US have at the end of the year?
Prediction markets currently give a 91% probability that How many oil rigs will the US have at the end of the year?. This contract trades at 91¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme dysfunction with zero liquidity ($0 volume, $0 open interest) and a nonsensical 9¢ spread despite a 0¢ price, suggesting no active trading or potentially a data error.
Analysis
This market shows extreme dysfunction with zero liquidity ($0 volume, $0 open interest) and a nonsensical 9¢ spread despite a 0¢ price, suggesting no active trading or potentially a data error. The implied yields are wildly inverted—the "No" side claims 1139% yield versus 17.4% for "Yes"—which is mathematically inconsistent with a 0¢ price and indicates the market lacks sufficient participants to establish rational pricing. The recent 5¢ price movement (84¢ to 89¢) over seven days appears to be noise given the complete absence of volume, and with 259 days to expiry and a high cliff risk index of 8, this market is essentially non-functional for trading purposes.
Resolution rules
If the number of oil rigs in the United States reported at the end of 2026 is at least 380, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXOILRIGS-26-380 yes 100