How many oil rigs will the US have at the end of the year
Leader sits at 91% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 88%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
At least 370
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
88¢
At least 380
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
189 days
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
How many oil rigs will the US have at the end of the year
How many oil rigs will the US have at the end of the year?: At least 370
KXOILRIGS-26-370
How many oil rigs will the US have at the end of the year?: At least 430
KXOILRIGS-26-430
How many oil rigs will the US have at the end of the year?: At least 420
KXOILRIGS-26-420
How many oil rigs will the US have at the end of the year?: At least 410
KXOILRIGS-26-410
How many oil rigs will the US have at the end of the year?: At least 400
KXOILRIGS-26-400
How many oil rigs will the US have at the end of the year?: At least 390
KXOILRIGS-26-390
How many oil rigs will the US have at the end of the year?: At least 380
KXOILRIGS-26-380
Analysis
This contract estimates the probability that US oil rig counts will reach a specific threshold by December 31, 2026. The 90% probability reflects market confidence that rig deployment will remain within or exceed expected levels, supported by current drilling activity and industry capacity forecasts. The main drivers are crude oil prices (which incentivize or discourage drilling investment) and natural gas pricing, which affects rig utilization rates. Economic demand signals, Federal Reserve policy, and quarterly earnings reports from major drilling contractors will provide the clearest indicators of whether rig counts track toward the forecast level. The specific resolution date is December 31, 2026, when the actual rig count will be officially published by industry tracking services.
- ›Current West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude price relative to breakeven drilling costs (~$55-65/barrel threshold); sustained prices below this level historically reduce rig count growth
- ›US natural gas price trends and production dynamics, which determine whether gas-focused drilling remains economically viable versus oil drilling
- ›Quarterly rig count data from Baker Hughes published each Friday; consistent month-over-month trends would validate or challenge the forecasted trajectory
- ›Capital expenditure announcements and guidance from major drilling contractors (EOG, Diamondback, Pioneer) during earnings calls; management commentary directly signals near-term rig deployment plans
- ›Federal regulatory changes affecting drilling permits on federal lands or offshore zones; policy shifts could materially alter deployment rates in specific regions
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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