Will Suzanne Bonamici be the Democratic nominee for OR-01?
Prediction markets currently give a 99% probability that Will Suzanne Bonamici be the Democratic nominee for OR-01?. This contract trades at 99¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market is essentially frozen with minimal liquidity—just $6 open interest and zero 24-hour volume—making the 97¢ price potentially unreliable despite the tight 1¢ spread.
Analysis
This market is essentially frozen with minimal liquidity—just $6 open interest and zero 24-hour volume—making the 97¢ price potentially unreliable despite the tight 1¢ spread. The extreme 1549% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe mispricing, as the market is pricing in only a 3% chance of a contested primary or Bonamici's defeat, which seems optimistic given 565 days remain until resolution and primary dynamics can shift substantially. The modest 2.7% yield on the "Yes" side combined with the cliff risk index of 24 suggests meaningful uncertainty about whether this nomination is truly locked in, warranting caution before treating 97¢ as a reliable probability estimate.
Resolution rules
If Suzanne Bonamici wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 OR-01 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXORPRIMARY-01D26-SBON yes 100