Will Chris Beck be the Democratic nominee for OR-02?
Prediction markets currently give a 45% probability that Will Chris Beck be the Democratic nominee for OR-02?. This contract trades at 45¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. Beck's nomination odds have declined 2 cents over the past week to 45¢, suggesting modest erosion in his perceived viability as the Democratic nominee for this Oregon House seat.
Analysis
Beck's nomination odds have declined 2 cents over the past week to 45¢, suggesting modest erosion in his perceived viability as the Democratic nominee for this Oregon House seat. The 92.9% implied yield on the Yes side is notably elevated relative to the 566-day time horizon, indicating the market is pricing in significant uncertainty or potential candidate attrition. With only $992 in open interest and a tight 8¢ spread, liquidity is thin for a market this far from expiration, which may amplify price volatility if new information emerges about the race.
Resolution rules
If Chris Beck wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 OR-02 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXORPRIMARY-02D26-CBEC yes 100