Will Cliff Bentz be the Republican nominee for OR-02?
Prediction markets currently give a 97% probability that Will Cliff Bentz be the Republican nominee for OR-02?. This contract trades at 97¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price potentially unreliable as a signal of true probability.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price potentially unreliable as a signal of true probability. The massive 1226% implied yield on the "No" side and 613% risk-adjusted yield suggest severe mispricing or a complete absence of market participants willing to trade at these levels. With 566 days until expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of only 19, there appears minimal near-term catalyst for nomination activity, which may explain why no one is actively positioning in this contract.
Resolution rules
If Cliff Bentz wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 OR-02 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXORPRIMARY-02R26-CBEN yes 100