Will Patti Adair be the Republican nominee for OR-05?
Prediction markets currently give a 87% probability that Will Patti Adair be the Republican nominee for OR-05?. This contract trades at 87¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. The market is pricing Adair as a heavily favored nominee at 87¢, but the extremely thin liquidity ($4.28 open interest) and wide 6¢ spread raise questions about price reliability—this could reflect genuine consensus or simply insufficient trading activity to establish a robust market.
Analysis
The market is pricing Adair as a heavily favored nominee at 87¢, but the extremely thin liquidity ($4.28 open interest) and wide 6¢ spread raise questions about price reliability—this could reflect genuine consensus or simply insufficient trading activity to establish a robust market. The massive 431.8% implied yield on the No side suggests the market may be overconfident in Adair's inevitability, creating potential value for contrarian bettors willing to accept the high cliff risk (7/10). With 566 days until resolution and no price movement over the past week, this market appears dormant and may not reflect recent developments in Oregon's 5th district Republican primary dynamics.
Resolution rules
If Patti Adair wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 OR-05 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXORPRIMARY-05R26-PADA yes 100